国际品牌财报总结专题:库存均维持健康水平,困境公司业绩边际改善
Guoxin Securities·2024-12-09 02:10

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [2] Core Insights - Brand revenue growth continues to show differentiation, with international brands performing relatively well this year. The overall revenue differentiation among brands follows last year's trend, with Adidas showing improvement while Nike's performance has declined. Notable brands with strong two-year compound revenue growth include Deckers, Fast Retailing, and Lululemon, while brands like VF and Under Armour have seen declines [4][6][14] - In terms of market performance, the Greater China region has seen a downward trend in growth, while North America has shown an upward trend. The EMEA/European region continues to face pressure. The macroeconomic consumption demand in China is under pressure, leading to a decline in overall growth compared to 2023 [4][26] - The wholesale channel has faced revenue growth pressure due to inventory issues in 2023, but the situation has improved in 2024. Companies with faster inventory clearance have seen quicker recovery in wholesale revenue, with Adidas, Deckers, and PUMA leading in direct sales growth [4][28] Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Strong performers with compound revenue growth above mid-double digits include Deckers, Fast Retailing, and Lululemon. Brands with low single-digit growth include PUMA, Nike, and Adidas, while VF and Under Armour have seen significant declines [4][15][17] - The inventory situation has improved after a year of destocking, with North American inventory issues easing since Q2 of this year [4][23] Market Analysis - The Greater China region led growth in 2023 but is expected to face challenges in 2024, with a decline in growth rates. North America has seen a recovery in revenue performance since Q2 2024, while the EMEA region remains under pressure [4][26] - The performance of brands varies significantly across regions, with Lululemon maintaining strong growth despite a decline in growth rate [4][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on manufacturers with strong customer structures and the ability to expand capacity. Key recommendations include Nike, Adidas, and core suppliers like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which are expected to see growth in orders from Adidas starting next year [6][7]