石油化工行业周报第381期（20241202—20241208）：OPEC+延长减产计划，继续看好“三桶油”长期配置价值

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the "Three Oil Giants" [5] Core Views - OPEC+ has extended its production cut plan, maintaining a high oil price demand. The production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day will last until the end of 2026, and 2.2 million barrels per day until the first quarter of 2025, with gradual increases thereafter [1][29] - The marginal cost of U.S. shale oil is approximately $64 per barrel, which is expected to drive oil price rebalancing [2][38] - The "Three Oil Giants" demonstrate strong resilience during oil price fluctuations, with their earnings expected to rise further [4] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Cuts - OPEC+ has decided to extend its voluntary production cuts, with a significant reduction in planned production for 2025 compared to previous forecasts [1][29] - The fiscal breakeven oil price for Saudi Arabia is projected to be $96.2 per barrel in 2024 and $84.7 in 2025, indicating a strong desire to maintain high oil prices [1][32] U.S. Shale Oil Marginal Costs - The average required WTI oil price for new shale oil wells to be profitable is $64 per barrel, up from $62 the previous year [2][38] Investment Opportunities in "Three Oil Giants" - The "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment, with their dividend yields showing a favorable spread over 10-year government bond yields [2][41] - The companies have shown positive growth in oil and gas production, with respective increases of 2.0%, 2.6%, and 8.5% year-on-year [2][47] Long-term Strategies - The "Three Oil Giants" are committed to long-term strategies, focusing on enhancing production capacity and transitioning to cleaner energy sources [3][62] - China National Petroleum Corporation is leveraging its integrated operations to enhance profitability in the natural gas sector, which is expected to grow significantly [3][54]