策略点评：投资者在等待什么“靴子”落地？

Core Views - Investors are waiting for significant catalysts to stimulate market activity and increase investment in Chinese assets, particularly in light of the stagnant performance of the Hang Seng Index around 19,000 points for a month [1] - The potential increase in tariffs by the Trump administration is seen as a possible trading catalyst, with expectations that it could lead to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and impact trade balances [1][2] - There is a growing anticipation for a series of stimulus policies, especially in consumption and domestic demand, which could stabilize the economy despite the market's desire for large-scale measures [2] Economic Indicators - The report highlights that the real estate market in first-tier cities is showing signs of recovery, with both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes increasing, which could lead to price stabilization [3] - The expectation is that if the recovery in transaction volumes continues into the first quarter of next year, it may positively influence consumer spending [3] Fiscal Policy Directions - The report outlines several directions for fiscal policy, including expanding fiscal spending, increasing the issuance of special bonds, and focusing on long-term investments in key sectors [16] - Specific measures include supporting major national strategies, enhancing local government financial capabilities, and promoting stability in the real estate market through targeted financial tools [16]