农林牧渔行业投资策略周报：如何看待近期猪价走势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - Recent pig prices have declined due to farmers preemptively selling their livestock, with the average price for lean pigs on December 6 being 15.75 CNY/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 4.7% but a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The profit for self-breeding farmers is 172.3 CNY per head. As temperatures drop and the southern regions begin their curing processes, pig prices are expected to rebound during the year-end peak season [56][57] - Supply data indicates a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in the national inventory of medium and large pigs as of October. Demand remains strong, as evidenced by a 15% month-on-month increase in daily listings of white pigs in Beijing's Xinfadi market in November, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [56][57] - The current low prices for breeding sows suggest a conservative outlook for pig prices in 2025 among family farms, leading to cautious expansion actions. Major listed companies are focusing on repairing balance sheets and reducing debt ratios, resulting in a slowdown in overall production capacity growth [57] - The industry is expected to maintain profitability in 2025, with current valuations at historical lows. Key recommendations include large breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, while New Hope is noted for its potential turnaround. Mid-sized companies to watch include Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biological, and Huaton [57] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The average price for lean pigs on December 6 was 15.75 CNY/kg, down 4.7% week-on-week but up 8.5% year-on-year. The profit for self-breeding farmers is 172.3 CNY per head. The supply side shows a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in pig inventory as of October, while demand remains robust with a 15% month-on-month increase in daily listings in Beijing [56][57] Industry Tracking - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.8 percentage points this week, with the agricultural and forestry sector rising by 0.7% compared to a 1.4% increase in the CSI 300 index. The fishery, agricultural processing, and planting sectors saw the highest gains, increasing by 5.7%, 1.6%, and 1.4%, respectively [79] Agricultural Product Price Tracking - As of December 6, the average price for lean pigs was 15.8 CNY/kg, down 4.7% week-on-week, while the average price for piglets was 473.7 CNY/head, down 1.1%. In the poultry sector, the price for broilers in Yantai was 3.8 CNY/jin, down 1.3% week-on-week, and the price for chicks was 4.2 CNY/chick, down 5.4% [83][91]