工程机械系列报告：行业筑底回暖，国产挖机龙头走向全球

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Maintain Buy" [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is in a bottoming recovery phase, with excavator sales showing improvement. The industry has a wide range of applications across construction, water conservancy, electricity, roads, mining, ports, and national defense. As of 2023, excavators account for approximately 29.06% of the sales of the top 50 global engineering machinery manufacturers [4][16]. - The current industry cycle is recovering from a downturn that began in 2022, with excavator sales in the first seven months of 2024 totaling 116,900 units, a year-on-year decline of 3.72%, indicating a significant narrowing of the decline compared to the previous year [4][23]. - Domestic brands have significantly increased their market share, reaching 86.8% in 2023, up from 83.5% in 2022, and are expected to continue this upward trend [4][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Recovery and Sales Performance - The engineering machinery sector is currently in a recovery phase, with excavator sales acting as a leading indicator, representing about 30% of total industry sales [16]. - The industry has experienced multiple cycles since 2005, with the current phase showing signs of recovery starting from early 2024 [23]. 2. Domestic Demand and Policy Impact - The real estate market is seeing policy optimizations, which are expected to positively impact excavator sales as they are heavily used in construction projects [35]. - Fixed asset investment in the first half of 2024 grew by 3.9%, with infrastructure and mining investments increasing by 7.7% and 17%, respectively [41]. 3. Replacement Demand - The high ownership of excavators, with 190,000 units expected to be in use for over ten years, creates significant replacement demand, projected at 102,000, 145,000, and 202,000 units for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [43][48]. 4. Global Market Growth and Export Opportunities - The global engineering machinery market is expected to grow from $195.04 billion in 2023 to $273.94 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.3% [4][53]. - Chinese manufacturers are increasing their export share, with 2023 exports reaching $48.55 billion, and the gross profit margins for exports are higher than domestic sales [70].