一周综评与展望：M1口径调整

Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank will implement a revised narrow money (M1) statistical caliber starting January 2025, which will include personal demand deposits and customer reserve funds from non-bank payment institutions[1] - The adjustment aims to reflect the liquidity of personal demand deposits and non-bank payment reserves, aligning them with the characteristics of demand deposits[1] Global Political Instability - South Korea's political situation is tense, with President Yoon Suk-yeol declaring a state of emergency due to budget disputes, which was later revoked by the National Assembly[2] - France's National Assembly successfully passed a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier, marking the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962, leading to significant political instability[2] - Germany faces political turmoil as Finance Minister Lindner was dismissed, contributing to the potential collapse of the coalition government, impacting the economic outlook for Europe[2] U.S. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, surpassing both expectations and the previous month's rate of 4.1%[2] - The strong job growth alongside rising unemployment has increased market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical instability exceeding expectations, economic data falling short of forecasts, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[3]