产业经济周观点：美国经济政策或推升海外通缩压力

Group 1 - The report indicates that China's total policy support is clear, with reduced risks from broad fiscal and real estate sectors dragging down the economy. If commodity and service consumption continue to expand, combined with improved industrial profits, it may signal a positive feedback loop for domestic circulation [1] - The resilience of the US economy is highlighted, with interest rate-sensitive sectors providing support to the economy [1] - The long-term trend in China is identified as an expansion of the service industry, a contraction in traditional manufacturing, and an acceleration of self-sufficiency and the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 2 - The report notes that market trading characteristics remain evident, with a potential shift towards large-cap value styles in the future [1] - There is a long-term positive outlook for central state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative, new consumption, O2O, semiconductor equipment, military industry, and leading traditional manufacturing companies, while mid-term attention is given to AI applications [1] Group 3 - The report discusses the weak structure of US non-farm employment, with November's non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 227,000, supported mainly by government sectors, while the private sector fell short of expectations [10] - It is noted that employment in goods production is stronger than in services, but wage growth remains weak, indicating persistent inflation in the service sector [11] - The report highlights that advanced manufacturing and cyclical sectors have led the market, while consumption and pharmaceuticals have shown weaker performance [20]