通胀预期分化，静待数据指引

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance last week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising by 3.3% and 1.0% respectively, while the Dow Jones experienced a slight decline[3] - In Europe, major indices rose collectively, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 increasing by 3.9% and 2.7% respectively, while the UK's FTSE 100 saw a modest rise of 0.3%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, most markets were up, with Taiwan's weighted index leading at 4.2%, while South Korea's composite index fell by 1.1%[3] U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs in November, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000, marking the largest increase since March[4] - The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly from 4.1% to 4.2%, leading to a significant drop in the dollar index[4] - Following the employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged from 66% to 86%[4] Inflation Expectations - Market sentiment regarding inflation for next year is divided, with some analysts predicting a second wave of inflation while others expect continued decline[5] - Recent trends show a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, indicating a market belief that inflation will not rise significantly in the near term[5] Investment Strategy - Caution is advised as some funds may exhibit a chasing behavior in the current strong performance of digital currencies and U.S. stocks[6] - The upcoming CPI data is critical for the December FOMC meeting, and there remains a possibility that rates may not be cut despite strong market confidence[6] - The report suggests a cautious optimism for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in high-dividend and internet platform sectors, while remaining vigilant about potential risks[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalations in geopolitical tensions[6]