ESTUN AUTOMATION(002747) 中原证券·2024-12-09 04:57Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][25]. Core Insights - The company, Estun (002747), reported a revenue of 3.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 66.7 million yuan, a significant decline of 147.6% year-on-year [3][9]. - The third quarter showed a revenue increase of 21.7% compared to the previous quarter, with a slight narrowing of losses. The EBITDA for the third quarter was 86.28 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.45% [3][9]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic player in the industrial robotics sector, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, with a market share increase to 51.6% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 4.5 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 66.7 million yuan, down 147.6% year-on-year. The EBITDA for the same period was 152.54 million yuan, a decrease of 41.38% year-on-year [3][9][10]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 29.67%, a decline of 3.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -1.83%, down 7.33 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. Market Position and Industry Outlook - The industrial robotics sector is expected to enter an upward cycle due to equipment upgrades and domestic substitution trends. The production of industrial robots showed significant growth in the latter half of 2024, with year-on-year increases of 12.4% to 33.4% from June to October [7][8]. - The company is actively expanding its global supply chain and has established a presence in key manufacturing regions worldwide, enhancing its competitive edge [6][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.04 billion yuan, 5.82 billion yuan, and 7.01 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same years are 0.08 billion yuan, 1.7 billion yuan, and 3.12 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 2096X, 101.47X, and 55.07X [9][10].