11月美国非农数据解读：就业市场走向均衡

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 227,000, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000[2] - The previous two months' data were revised upward, with September's employment numbers adjusted from 223,000 to 255,000 and October's from 12,000 to 36,000, totaling an upward revision of 56,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The number of unemployed individuals increased from 6.957 million to 7.146 million, primarily due to a rise in voluntary leavers and new entrants, which increased by 52,000 and 91,000 respectively[20] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployment stands at 1.12, indicating a balanced labor market rather than a recession[25] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the market expectation of 0.3%[22] - The tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration may further support wage levels due to a shrinking labor supply[22] Sector Performance - Retail sector employment was notably affected due to the late Thanksgiving holiday, leading to a significant decline in adjusted retail employment figures[25] - Job growth was primarily observed in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and government sectors, while transportation saw a recovery in employment numbers following the return of striking workers[25] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, provided that the upcoming inflation data does not significantly exceed expectations[25] - Attention will be on the economic projections released alongside the meeting, particularly regarding the anticipated number of rate cuts in 2025, which may be adjusted downward compared to September's forecasts[25]