金属、非金属与采矿行业：能源金属维持战略看多，关注铝铜估值低点左侧配置

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the energy metals sector, particularly focusing on aluminum and copper due to their current low valuations [6]. Core Insights - Despite weak expectations, the report continues to recommend aluminum and copper, highlighting that the current copper-to-gold ratio is at a historical high, indicating cautious economic outlooks in the commodity market [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that while economic expectations are cautious, the structural optimization of supply and demand for copper and aluminum is expected to maintain a favorable fundamental outlook, especially for electrolytic aluminum [5][6]. - The report notes that recent negotiations between Chilean copper miner Antofagasta and Jiangxi Copper at $21.25 per ton could guide future long-term contracts, potentially leading to reduced copper smelting if settled at low prices [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33%, with the metals and mining sector increasing by 2.60%, outperforming the index by 0.27 percentage points [13][15]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the industrial metals sector, with copper prices increasing by 1.2% and aluminum prices decreasing by 0.4% [22][24]. Price Trends - Recent price movements show LME three-month copper rising by 0.9% to $9,093 per ton, while LME aluminum increased by 0.3% to $2,608 per ton [22][24]. - The report highlights that domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have decreased by 1.9% to 76 yuan per kilogram, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices remained stable at 72 yuan per kilogram [23][24]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing structural improvements in supply and demand for copper and aluminum, with a focus on the electrolytic aluminum supply side being more certain [5][6]. - It also mentions that copper and aluminum inventories have decreased, with copper stocks down by 2.62% week-on-week and aluminum stocks down by 1.45% [5][22]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages and significant production capacity increases in the lithium sector, such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [5]. - It recommends specific stocks in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining, and in the aluminum sector, including Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao [5].