房地产行业周度观点更新:政策尚未进入典型的超常规区间
Changjiang Securities·2024-12-09 05:50

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - Current conventional policy tools have surpassed historical frameworks, but the focus remains limited to the market's internal recovery momentum, providing only short-term stabilization effects, with uncertain sustainability [5][7]. - The industry is seeking a new equilibrium, with a clear policy goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," indicating a more proactive approach. Initial signs of stabilization in volume and price are emerging, although a trend reversal will require time [5][6]. - The report suggests monitoring high-quality leading companies with core assets, local leaders benefiting from debt reduction, and state-owned enterprises with stable cash flows [5]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.33% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.89%, ranking 8th out of 32 industries [13]. - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has risen by 15.54%, with a relative underperformance of -0.26% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 15th out of 32 [13]. Policy Updates - Cities like Guangzhou and Nanjing have introduced measures to relax housing restrictions, while Chongqing has canceled certain standards for residential properties [6]. - New policies in Taiyuan aim to protect homebuyers' rights, enhancing supervision of pre-sale funds and promoting timely delivery of properties [6]. Sales Data - New home transaction volume in 37 cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 31.0%, while second-hand home transactions in 19 cities have increased by 39.3% [7]. - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in sample cities reached 448,000 square meters, up 59.2% from September, while second-hand homes saw a daily average of 318,000 square meters, up 57.1% [7].