金属及金属新材料行业投资策略周报：黄金预期再提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Base Metals: Strong demand expectations support base metal prices, which are expected to fluctuate. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have risen, while actual domestic demand is gradually weakening. Industrial metal supply is weak, leading to anticipated price fluctuations. Attention is drawn to the Central Economic Work Conference for demand support. Recommended stocks include: Luoyang Molybdenum (A+H), Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, China Aluminum (A+H), Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [2]. - Steel: Supply and demand are rising simultaneously, with slight declines in steel prices and continued profit margin declines. On the supply side, blast furnace operations have rebounded, but steel mill profit margins are declining, with significant constraints on pig iron supply. On the demand side, short-term demand is recovering, and macro incremental policies are being monitored. Cost-wise, weakening profit margins are expected to suppress raw material procurement demand. The supply-demand pattern is expected to remain stable in the short term, with steel prices fluctuating. Future incremental policies are expected to stabilize expectations, with recommended stocks including: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin Co. [2]. - Precious Metals: The probability of a December rate cut in the U.S. has increased, and the People's Bank of China has restarted gold purchases, leading to an upward trend in gold prices. The U.S. employment situation remains resilient, with the market expecting an 86% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. The People's Bank of China has increased gold holdings again, which is expected to continue pushing up gold prices. Recommended stocks include: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhaojin Mining (H), Shandong Gold (A+H), Zhongjin Gold, Shanjin International, and Xingye Silver Tin [3]. - Energy Metals: The off-season is approaching, and lithium prices are expected to weaken slightly. The inventory reduction of lithium carbonate has narrowed, and the market has sufficient short-term demand expectations. However, the upcoming off-season is expected to put pressure on lithium prices, although the anticipated extent of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is improving, limiting the price decline. Recommended stocks include: Ganfeng Lithium (A+H), Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Huayou Cobalt [3]. - Minor Metals: Short-term tungsten and molybdenum prices are expected to remain stable. In the off-season, rare earth prices are expected to weaken slightly. Tungsten prices have slightly declined, with the industry chain continuing to engage in mild competition, while molybdenum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels due to slow downstream stainless steel inventory digestion. Recommended stocks include: Jinchuan Group, Shenghe Resources, Northern Rare Earth, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and Xiamen Tungsten [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Performance - From December 2 to December 6, the Shenwan Industrial Metal Index rose by 2.10% to 1847.52 points, the Shenwan Precious Metal Index rose by 0.68% to 14400.19 points, the Shenwan Minor Metal Index rose by 0.74% to 16858.44 points, and the Shenwan Metal New Materials Index rose by 3.94% to 6693.51 points [26]. Section 2: Metal Prices - Base Metals: LME copper price rose by 0.86% to $9,092.5 per ton, LME aluminum rose by 0.33% to $2,607.5 per ton, LME lead fell by 0.72% to $2,066.5 per ton, LME zinc fell by 1.17% to $3,072 per ton, LME tin rose by 1.47% to $28,950 per ton, and LME nickel fell by 0.03% to $15,995 per ton [45]. - Steel: The price of ordinary steel fell by 0.21% to 3724 yuan per ton, iron ore price rose by 4.48% to 769 yuan per ton, and coke price rose by 0.16% to 1905 yuan per ton [45]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold fell by 0.71% to $2,654.9 per ounce, SHFE gold fell by 0.46% to 615.94 yuan per gram, COMEX silver rose by 1.24% to $31.485 per ounce, and SHFE silver rose by 1.64% to 7823 yuan per kilogram [45]. - Energy Metals: Battery-grade lithium carbonate price fell by 1.71% to 76,800 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide price rose by 0.53% to 68,700 yuan per ton [45].