银行业流动性观察第104期：11月金融数据前瞻及12月流动性展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - As the year-end approaches, banks are preparing for the "opening red" work for the next year, leading to a seasonal slowdown in credit activity. The financing demand in the real economy remains to be repaired, and the increase in loans is expected to be under pressure [2][3] - The report anticipates that new RMB loans in November will be between 700 billion to 900 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7.9% [4][5] - The issuance of special bonds is accelerating, which may replace some high-interest loans, leading to a drag on credit growth in November and December [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Loan Growth Expectations - It is expected that new RMB loans in November will be around 800 billion, with a growth rate of approximately 7.8% [23] - The report indicates that the demand for loans is weak, with the 1M, 3M, and 6M bill rates showing a downward trend, suggesting further contraction in loan supply and demand in December [4][5] Section 2: Social Financing - The report estimates that new social financing in November will be around 2.8 trillion, with a growth rate potentially rising to about 8% [7] - The increase in special bond issuance is a key driver for social financing growth, with government bond net financing expected to reach 1.83 trillion in November [7][8] Section 3: Monetary Supply - M1 growth is expected to continue rebounding, while M2 growth may see a slight decline compared to October [9][11] - The report highlights that the M1 negative growth rate is expected to narrow, with adjustments in statistical methods leading to smoother trends [10][11] Section 4: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity environment in December is expected to be relatively stable, with a focus on the monetary policy direction from the Central Economic Work Conference [13][14] - The report notes that the central bank is likely to maintain liquidity support, with various measures available to smooth out year-end liquidity fluctuations [16][18]