光伏行业简评：CPIA大会召开，行业自律有望推动行业底部企稳

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The CPIA conference held on December 4, 2024, discussed industry self-discipline, aiming to promote healthy and sustainable development in the photovoltaic sector [3][5]. - The industry is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, leading to low overall production scheduling. As of the end of 2023, domestic capacities for silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules reached 230.07 thousand tons, 953.74 GW, 929.83 GW, and 919.90 GW respectively [3][19]. - The prices across the photovoltaic supply chain have dropped significantly below cost levels, resulting in pressure on the main industry chain's performance. As of December 4, 2024, the average prices for N-type polysilicon, N-type silicon wafers, TOPCon battery cells, and TOPCon modules were approximately 40 CNY/kg, 1.02 CNY/piece, 0.27 CNY/W, and 0.71 CNY/W, reflecting declines of -40.30%, -54.26%, -27.03%, and -29.00% respectively since the beginning of the year [4][26]. Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Issues - The industry has experienced significant capacity expansion, leading to supply-demand contradictions. The production capacity growth rates for silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules have slowed down significantly as of August 2024 compared to the end of 2023 [3][19]. - Inventory pressures are high, with silicon material and silicon wafer inventories reaching 28.5 thousand tons and 31.5 GW respectively as of November 22, 2024. The operating rates for various segments hit annual lows in October 2024, with rates of 43%, 53.60%, 55.10%, and 54.99% for silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules respectively [23][3]. Price and Performance Pressure - The prices across the photovoltaic supply chain have fallen significantly, with all segments currently operating at a loss. The gross profit margins for double-sided monocrystalline PERC silicon materials, wafers, battery cells, and modules were -19%, -11%, -17%, and -5% respectively as of November 28, 2024 [4][27]. Policy and Industry Self-Discipline - Recent policy adjustments, including changes to export tax rates and stricter capacity expansion requirements, aim to support high-quality development in the industry. The export tax rate for certain photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% effective December 1, 2024, which is expected to stabilize overseas prices [32][29]. - The CPIA conference has initiated a series of discussions aimed at preventing "involution" and promoting self-discipline within the industry. Major companies are expected to reach a consensus on self-regulation, which will help the industry gradually recover from unhealthy competition [5][34].