宏观周报：国内等待政策

Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - New home sales in first and second-tier cities have declined, but this is considered a seasonal drop consistent with trends from 2021[8] - Third-tier cities continue to see new home sales at five-year lows, yet overall sales are still on the rise[8] - As of November 25, listing prices and volumes in first, second, and third-tier cities have all decreased, indicating a market shift towards price adjustments for volume[8] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing strong upward momentum as year-end allocation demand increases, with market sentiment remaining bullish despite recent regulatory changes[13] - Recent bond yield changes show significant declines across various maturities, with the 10-year yield dropping to 1.95%[14] - The market is closely watching upcoming central political bureau meetings, with potential policy outcomes influencing bond market performance[13] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, with labor force participation decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[26] - November's non-farm payrolls added 227,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, while previous months' figures were revised upwards by a total of 56,000 jobs[15] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased from 68% to 85% due to rising unemployment and weaker job market expectations[28] Group 4: Currency and Global Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has shown strong performance, bolstered by the depreciation of other currencies, particularly the Canadian dollar[30] - Market expectations indicate a potential decline in the U.S. federal funds rate to around 3.5% by the end of next year[34]