Economic Outlook - The central government has significant room to increase its deficit and is planning to implement new incremental policies[22] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to boost market confidence and alleviate concerns about external shocks[22] Market Trends - Historically, A-shares show a "spring excitement" phenomenon from the Lunar New Year to the Two Sessions, with average gains significantly higher during this period[14] - From 2013 to 2023, A-shares averaged positive returns before the Central Economic Work Conference and the Two Sessions, while adjustments occurred afterward[15] Financial Data - As of November, the official manufacturing PMI was at 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in production activities[22] - A-shares saw a net inflow of funds reaching a new high in 2023, providing ample liquidity support for the market[22] Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued dividend assets for valuation recovery, especially after the policy shifts from the 924 and 926 meetings[40] - Monitor the direction of incremental fiscal spending, particularly in areas benefiting people's livelihoods and expanding domestic demand[40] Risk Factors - Potential delays in domestic policy implementation could impact market performance[41] - Geopolitical events may exceed expectations, affecting market stability[41]
中央经济工作会议有望提振市场信心,短期市场或将继续走强
AVIC Securities·2024-12-09 07:49