原油月报：三大机构维持2025年全球原油供给弱平衡

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the global crude oil industry, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand dynamics [1] Core Views - The global crude oil market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in 2025, with marginal changes in inventory levels [2] - Crude oil supply is projected to increase slightly in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting supply levels of 10490, 10466, and 10435 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] - Crude oil demand is expected to grow modestly in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand levels of 10380, 10436, and 10557 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 global crude oil inventory changes of 110, 30, and -122 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of 6 thousand barrels per day [2] - The inventory predictions show an increase of 19 thousand barrels per day compared to October 2024 forecasts [2] Global Crude Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecast 2025 crude oil supply at 10490, 10466, and 10435 thousand barrels per day respectively, representing increases of 200, 204, and 173 thousand barrels per day from 2024 [2] - The supply forecasts show minimal changes compared to October 2024 predictions, with adjustments of 0, +13, and -1 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] Global Crude Oil Demand - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil demand at 10380, 10436, and 10557 thousand barrels per day respectively, representing increases of 100, 122, and 154 thousand barrels per day from 2024 [2] - The demand forecasts show minor adjustments compared to October 2024 predictions, with changes of 0, +1, and -21 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] Recommended Companies - The report recommends investing in major Chinese oil companies including CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, and their subsidiaries [4] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service, China Oilfield Services, and Petrochemical Machinery [4] Regional Supply Dynamics - IEA predicts 2025 crude oil supply growth will be concentrated in OECD Americas (US, Canada) and non-OECD Americas (Brazil, Guyana) [34] - EIA forecasts supply growth in North America (US, Canada) and Central/South America (Brazil, Guyana) [36] - OPEC expects supply growth primarily in OECD Americas (US, Canada) [41] US Crude Oil Production - EIA projects 2025 US crude oil production at 13530 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 300 thousand barrels per day from 2024 [78] - As of June 2024, US shale oil production reached 9850 thousand barrels per day, with Permian Basin accounting for 6190 thousand barrels per day [81] Global Demand Trends - Non-OECD countries, particularly China, are expected to drive global crude oil demand growth in 2025 [126] - IEA forecasts 2025 demand growth for jet fuel (+170 thousand barrels/day), diesel (+70 thousand barrels/day), and gasoline (+110 thousand barrels/day) [134] - China's 2025 demand is expected to show growth in jet fuel (+40 thousand barrels/day) and chemical feedstocks (LPG +120 thousand barrels/day, naphtha +140 thousand barrels/day) [138]