国君2025年度策略|化妆品:把握结构,优选弹性

Investment Recommendation - Overweight recommendation: Focus on companies with upward product momentum and high growth elasticity, strong brand momentum leaders, and those expected to bottom out and potentially rebound [1] Industry Trends - Post-2022 consumption pressure and 2023 consumer destocking, the beauty and personal care industry saw a recovery in 2024 with normalized purchasing cycles and improved industry sentiment, evidenced by double-digit growth in online beauty sales during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival [2] - Intensified competition post-channel红利消退, with platform traffic and price competition heating up, leading to further brand differentiation [2] - The rise of new domestic brands in beauty and personal care, with strong performance from leading domestic brands due to organizational efficiency in product innovation and channel operations [2] Structural Opportunities - Personal care transformation: Content e-commerce creates new environments for product launches and marketing, with brands strong in product innovation and operations likely to break through [3] - Affordable consumption: Continued trend of cost-effectiveness driven by supply-demand resonance, benefiting brands with strong supply chains and superior operations [3] - Emotional consumption: Emotional value drives demand for culture, style, and experience, benefiting domestic makeup and fragrance personal care [3] - Ingredient innovation: Recombinant collagen supply-side ingredients and category evolution catalyze demand expansion, maintaining high popularity [3] Key Companies - Anticipated significant recovery in market risk appetite by 2025, with the beauty and personal care sector benefiting from numerous changes and the overall rise of domestic brands, showing clear growth attributes [4] - Intensified brand differentiation at the fundamental level, recommending bottom-up selection of companies with product and channel changes and elasticity [4]