特朗普交易退坡，人民币汇率减压

Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The short-term basis for sustained depreciation of the RMB is lacking, with expectations for the RMB to appreciate initially and then depreciate in 2025[2] - The USD to RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.3 before potential increases if aggressive trade policies are implemented by Trump[2] - Recent trends show a divergence between the USD to RMB exchange rate and the CFETS RMB index, indicating a correlation with global economic and monetary policy differences[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The USD index has risen by 5.17% from September 30 to December 6, while the USD to RMB exchange rate increased by 3.46% during the same period[15] - China's trade surplus reached $95.719 billion in October, marking a significant year-to-date increase of 15.77%[27] - The capital and financial account under the banking sector has shown a deficit of $102.788 billion from January to October, indicating increased depreciation pressure on the RMB[30] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, which may lead to a slight appreciation of the RMB[4] - The anticipated trade policies under Trump's administration may introduce greater global trade uncertainty, impacting the RMB exchange rate[32] - The overall economic environment remains resilient, with the US GDP growth rate at 2.7% in Q3 2024, significantly higher than the Eurozone's 1.2% and the UK's 0.95%[18]