宏观周报2024年12月第二周

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The market is responding to high expectations from the Central Economic Work Conference, with November PMI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stronger demand-side improvement than production[14] - The average weekly trading volume reached 1.7246 trillion CNY, an increase of 183.4 billion CNY compared to the previous week[28] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.95% after breaking the 2% mark, but further breakthroughs may face policy expectation disturbances[15] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The non-bank interbank deposit market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism has improved the system's transmission, leading to a substantial reduction in certificate of deposit rates, resulting in effective monetary easing[14] - The expectation of a rate cut in December has risen to over 85%, reflecting market feedback on a soft landing for the U.S. economy and slight rate cuts[16] - The U.S. unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.2%, slightly above expectations and the previous month's 4.1%[16] Group 3: International Market Dynamics - The U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 220,000[16] - The offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar has shown a slight depreciation trend, which has eased recently due to the rapid rebound of the euro following political uncertainties in France[16] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.96% and the Nasdaq increased by 3.34%[28]