医药生物：我国核医学行业快速发展，RDC核药有望成为第二增长曲线

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Views - The domestic nuclear medicine industry is in its early stages of development, with significant growth potential driven by policy support and the localization of medical isotopes [5] - The penetration rate of nuclear medicine diagnostics has been rapidly increasing, with PET/CT and PET/MR examinations showing significant growth from 2019 to 2023 [5] - RDC (Radionuclide Drug Conjugates) nuclear drugs are expected to become the second growth curve for the nuclear medicine market, with treatment-oriented nuclear drugs driving future market expansion [5] Industry Chain Analysis Upstream: Medical Isotopes Localization - 90% of medical isotopes in China are currently imported, but domestic production is expected to increase with the commissioning of new reactors like the Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant in 2024 and the China Nuclear Power Research and Design Institute's reactor in 2027 [5][25] - The localization of isotopes such as lutetium-177, strontium-89, and yttrium-90 is expected to reduce prices and promote the development of radiopharmaceuticals [5][25] Midstream: Nuclear Medicine Policy and RDC Development - The policy framework for nuclear medicine in China is becoming clearer, with high regulatory barriers and continuous optimization of the policy system [26] - The penetration rate of nuclear medicine diagnostics has increased significantly, with PET/CT and PET/MR examinations growing by 62.5% and 97.4% respectively from 2019 to 2023 [29][34] - RDC drugs, which combine diagnostic and therapeutic functions, are expected to open up new treatment areas in nuclear medicine, with significant clinical advantages such as non-invasive diagnostics and reduced resistance to treatment [36][40] Downstream: Nuclear Pharmacy Layout - The nuclear pharmacy market in China is highly concentrated, with key players like Dongcheng Pharmaceutical and China Isotope & Radiation Corporation dominating the market [59] - The construction of nuclear pharmacies requires significant investment and long approval processes, making it a critical component for the commercialization of nuclear drugs [59] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pharmaceutical companies with advanced clinical progress in innovative nuclear drugs, such as Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, China Isotope & Radiation Corporation, and Grand Pharmaceutical [59] - Companies with nuclear pharmacy layouts are also highlighted as key players for future commercialization [59] Market Trends and Data - The domestic nuclear medicine market size was approximately 4.55 billion yuan in 2023, with diagnostic nuclear drugs accounting for over 80% of sales [29] - The number of PET/CT and PET/MR examinations increased by 62.5% and 97.4% respectively from 2019 to 2023, indicating rapid growth in nuclear medicine diagnostics [34] - The global RDC market is gaining traction, with Novartis' Pluvicto achieving over $1 billion in sales, demonstrating the commercial potential of RDC drugs [44]