基础化工行业投资策略周报：OPEC+会议推迟复产，百菌清延续提价

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The SW basic chemical sector rose by 1.94% from December 2 to December 6, underperforming the Wind All A Index by 0.37 percentage points. Sub-industries such as viscose, carbon black, and chlor-alkali showed better performance [4][22] - Chemical product prices have seen significant declines, with 336 tracked products showing 21% rising, 51% stable, and 27% declining. The top five products with price increases include carbon four raw materials, EVA (for photovoltaics), methyl acrylate, Bacillus subtilis, and aviation kerosene. The top five products with price declines include the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), liquid chlorine, PBS, vitamin B3 (niacin), and coal tar [4][68][84] - OPEC+ has postponed production resumption, extending the overall oil production cut of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026. The voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, originally set to expire at the end of December, has been extended to the end of March 2025, with the gradual resumption period extended from one year to 18 months [4] - Bacillus subtilis continues to see price increases due to supply shortages driven by specific component performance declines and the impact of El Niño on soybean rust outbreaks in Brazil. Current market prices range from 27,500 to 28,500 CNY per ton [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overall View - The SW basic chemical sector's performance from December 2 to December 6 showed a 1.94% increase, lagging behind the Wind All A Index by 0.37 percentage points. The sector is experiencing a transition from supply constraints to supply optimization, with upstream energy capital expenditures declining and global oil prices remaining high [22] - The report highlights the importance of new policies related to equipment updates and energy conservation, which may trigger a new round of supply-side optimization opportunities [22] Key Sub-Industry Information Tracking - MDI market continues to weaken due to strong supply and weak demand, with several major plants undergoing maintenance. The demand from downstream sectors remains cautious, leading to a lack of positive market sentiment [25] - TDI market shows signs of recovery due to tight supply, with current prices at 12,900 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.38% increase from the previous week [28] - The polyester filament market is experiencing a significant decline in production and sales, with average production costs at 5,623.14 CNY per ton, showing a slight decrease [29] Data Tracking - The report tracks the performance of 336 chemical products, indicating a significant number of price declines. The report also provides insights into the price fluctuations of key chemical products, highlighting the volatility in the market [34][68]