银行行业银行资负跟踪：等待年底再宽松

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the central bank's operations are expected to maintain a neutral liquidity stance, with a focus on potential reserve requirement ratio cuts by the end of the year [36][37]. - Government bond net payments are projected to rise, indicating a robust liquidity environment despite the upcoming tax period [36]. - The report notes a mixed trend in funding rates, with some rates increasing while others are decreasing, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in the banking sector [38][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Waiting for Year-End Easing - The central bank conducted 3,541 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 11,321 billion yuan [36]. - Government bond net payments for the current period were 7,995.15 billion yuan, with expectations for the next period to reach approximately 8,035.12 billion yuan [36]. 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The report indicates that the end-of-period rates for DR001, DR007, DR014, and DR021 were 1.49%, 1.66%, 1.80%, and 1.79%, respectively, with changes of +17.2bp, +2.0bp, +7.8bp, and +9.5bp [38]. - Shibor rates for 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were reported at 1.71%, 1.76%, 1.77%, 1.79%, and 1.80%, with respective changes of -6.1bp, -9.7bp, -9.7bp, -9.5bp, and -9.0bp [38]. 3. Banking Financing Tracking - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) was 6,051 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 3,532 billion yuan [39]. - The weighted average issuance rate for NCD was 1.77%, down by 12bp from the previous period [39]. - The report notes that the net financing scales for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks were 733 billion yuan, 1,506 billion yuan, and 1,140 billion yuan, respectively [39]. 4. Bond Market Insights - The report indicates that the end-of-period rates for government bonds across various maturities showed a downward trend, with 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y rates at 1.35%, 1.38%, 1.61%, 1.95%, and 2.16%, respectively [40]. - The report anticipates that the demand for government bonds will remain strong, leading to further downward pressure on rates [40].