农林牧渔行业周报：海外禽流感或致进口引种中断

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on financial performance, highlighting the increasing difficulty in predicting pig prices while noting significant operational efficiency differences among companies [3][28] - The report suggests that the current market attention on the pig farming sector is low, with valuations at the bottom, recommending a focus on quality leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [3][28] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Views 1.1. Swine - Current demand support is insufficient, with spot prices dropping to approximately 15.6 CNY/kg, and futures contracts reflecting pessimistic expectations [2][28] - The report notes a decrease in the number of breeding sows and a decline in piglet prices, indicating potential for price recovery in the coming year if current trends continue [2][28] 1.2. Poultry - The profitability of breeding stock is good, but terminal demand is average, with a notable drop in chick prices [4][29] - The report warns of potential interruptions in the import of grandparent stock due to avian influenza cases, which could tighten supply and boost prices in 2025 [4][29] 1.3. Feed - The report highlights improvements in aquaculture profitability due to rising fish prices and falling feed costs, with expectations for a rebound in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [5][30] - It notes that leading companies are entering a phase of stable cash flow, allowing them to increase market share despite previous challenges [5][30] 1.4. Pet Industry - The report mentions the launch of new pet health products and the opening of pet supply stores, indicating growth in the sector [8][34] - Sales data shows a decline in pet food sales in November 2024 compared to the previous year, but overall sales for October-November show an increase [11][37] 2. Market and Price Situation 2.1. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.44% over the week, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increasing by 0.67% [40]