钢铁行业周报：周期见底+结构优化，关注龙头钢企的红利属性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of steel companies has historically fluctuated with terminal demand, but since 2016, leading steel companies have shifted their capital expenditure focus from capacity expansion to structural adjustment, transitioning towards high-demand sectors such as automotive, home appliances, energy, and high-end manufacturing. This shift has been somewhat obscured by the long-term downturn in the industry over the past three years. However, with the industry bottom becoming clearer, there are expectations for supply-side and cost-side optimization, which may provide conditions for the convergence of profitability fluctuations among leading enterprises. Additionally, the long-term downward trend in capital expenditure for leading companies may further highlight their dividend attributes [2][7]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report notes that as the off-season effect deepens, the pressure of northern materials moving south increases, impacting the steel markets in East and South China. The apparent consumption of steel decreased by 0.93% week-on-week and 5.91% year-on-year, with rebar prices expected to find strong support at 3200-3300 yuan/ton [7][8]. - As of December, some steel mills have begun annual maintenance, which may alleviate supply-side pressure. Daily molten iron production has dropped to 2.3261 million tons, down 1.26 million tons per day from the previous week [7][8]. Inventory and Pricing Trends - Total steel inventory continues to decrease, down 1.33% week-on-week. Rebar inventory fell by 1.18% week-on-week and 16.27% year-on-year, while hot-rolled inventory saw a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week and 10.05% year-on-year. Consequently, Shanghai rebar prices fell to 3410 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week-on-week [7][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that as the worst period for real estate gradually passes, the downward pressure on leading companies may lessen. The cumulative decline in new housing starts for the first ten months of this year was 22.6%, but with a high inventory of commercial housing, the decline in new starts is expected to moderate in 2025 [7][8]. - There are expectations for improvements on both the supply and cost sides, which may accelerate the reversal of the industry bottom. The tightening of compliance standards for environmental and energy consumption may expedite the exit of low-end capacity [7][8]. Capital Expenditure and Dividend Potential - The report indicates that the capital expenditure of leading companies is expected to decrease, enhancing their dividend attributes. With many companies completing environmental upgrades, there is a trend towards optimizing cash flow, allowing for more investment in dividends, buybacks, and other shareholder return initiatives [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading steel companies with strong dividend attributes and low valuations, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [7][8].