计算机行业月报：AI应用潜力亟待释放，禁令下国产化持续深入

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" investment rating for the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - The software industry in China is expected to see a slowdown in growth in 2024, with software business revenue for January to October reaching 11.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, down from 13.4% in 2023 [2][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic AI server market localization, with the proportion of domestic chips increasing from 10% in the first half of 2023 to 20% in the first half of 2024 [2][29]. - The demand for AI applications is anticipated to accelerate, with significant developments expected in large models and AI capabilities in software applications [2][39]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - Software business revenue for January to October 2024 is 11.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from 2023 [14]. - The total profit for the software industry during the same period is 1,335.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, which is lower than the revenue growth rate [16]. - Software exports for January to October 2024 reached 46.34 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, marking a recovery trend [18]. High-Growth Sectors - The IC design sector grew by 13.8% year-on-year from January to October 2024, outperforming the overall software industry growth [22]. - Cloud services and big data services saw a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, supported by increased AI applications [25]. Localization - The U.S. has implemented new restrictions on semiconductor and AI technology investments in China, which may impact the industry in the short term [29]. - Domestic chip localization is progressing, with the proportion of domestic chips in AI servers increasing significantly [36]. - The domestic database market is dominated by local vendors, capturing about two-thirds of the market share [53]. Computing Power - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures, with the total capital expenditure of five major U.S. tech firms reaching 60.428 billion USD in Q3 2024, a 59% year-on-year increase [64]. - The AI server market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 21.9% from 2023 to 2028 [71].