交通运输行业12月投资策略：航空供需改善可期，关注顺周期属性的价值标的

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2][5] Core Views - The shipping sector is expected to see a recovery in oil transportation rates, with a potential marginal improvement in demand due to structural factors and the aging fleet of oil tankers [2][29] - The aviation sector shows a slight decrease in domestic flight volumes, but overall passenger traffic is recovering, with a projected high single-digit growth in civil aviation passenger volume for 2025 [2][51] - The express delivery sector remains competitive, with a focus on maintaining stable profitability despite potential price fluctuations in the coming year [2][53] - The logistics sector is viewed positively, particularly for leading companies like Debon Logistics and Jiayou International, which are expected to benefit from macroeconomic conditions and operational improvements [2][53] Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - Oil transportation rates have shown a mixed performance, with crude oil rates recovering slightly while VLCCs face pressure due to demand imbalances [2][29] - The global oil transportation fleet is aging, with limited new capacity expected in 2024, which may lead to upward pressure on rates [30][31] - Recommended stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and China Merchants Jinling [2][36] Aviation Sector - Overall and domestic flight volumes have decreased slightly, but international flights have increased, indicating a recovery trend [51][52] - The civil aviation passenger volume is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate in 2025, supported by a low growth rate in supply [53][54] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][53] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery market remains competitive, with price adjustments expected post-peak seasons [2][53] - Recommended stocks include SF Holding, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, focusing on companies with strong cyclical attributes [2][53] Logistics Sector - Positive outlook for leading logistics companies like Debon Logistics and Jiayou International, with expectations of continued growth despite macroeconomic challenges [2][53] - Debon Logistics is expected to benefit from operational synergies with JD Logistics, while Jiayou International has shown strong profit growth [2][53]