农林牧渔行业定期报告：白鸡引种受限加剧，上游景气周期有望延长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4]. Core Insights - The white-feathered chicken breeding is facing restrictions, which is expected to extend the upstream prosperity cycle [2]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply surplus leading to a decline in prices, but a potential rebound is anticipated as demand improves during the year-end peak season [1]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply is expected to be ample by year-end, with pig prices continuing to decline. As of December 6, the price was 15.66 CNY/kg, down 0.85 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average utilization rate of fattening barns across 17 provinces was 38.35%, a decrease of 5.88 percentage points [1][12]. - Consumption is recovering, with slaughter volumes on the rise. The average daily slaughter volume from November 30 to December 6 was 170,000 pigs, an increase of 0.69% week-on-week [1][18]. - The proportion of large pigs being sold has increased, with the average weight rising. From November 29 to December 5, the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 6.76%, up 0.95 percentage points week-on-week [1][28]. White-feathered Chicken - The price of chicken seedlings has dropped seasonally, with the industry average at 4.18 CNY per chick as of December 6, down 5.43% week-on-week. The price of white-feathered chicken was 7.55 CNY/kg, down 1.95% week-on-week [2][48]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in the U.S. and New Zealand has intensified restrictions on overseas breeding, leading to a shortage of imported parent stock chicken seedlings. The average price for parent stock chicken seedlings rose to 54.91 CNY/set, up from 39.11 CNY/set at the beginning of the year [2][53]. Seed Industry - The National Seed Double Exchange Conference highlighted significant achievements in seed industry revitalization, with a seed supply guarantee capacity reaching 75% [2][70]. - The 2024 policy document emphasizes accelerating the industrialization of biological breeding, which is expected to expand market space and improve industry concentration [2][71].