CPI、PPI点评（2024.11）：消费补贴成效显著核心CPI逆势回升

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the overall CPI decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[2] - The food CPI fell by 2.7% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the seasonal average decline by 2.5 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year drop of 1.9 percentage points to 1.0%[2] - The core CPI's increase was driven by industrial consumer goods, marking a second consecutive month of slight recovery, with a 0.1 percentage point rise to 0.3%[2] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month it increased by 0.1%, marking the first slight increase in five months[2] - The main drivers for the PPI's month-on-month increase were the oil and petrochemical industry chains, with coal mining and black metal prices showing a weakening trend, indicating a lack of significant domestic investment demand[2] - The PPI's unique pricing logic is influenced by the domestic supply-demand cycle, particularly in the coal and metallurgy sectors, which differ from other major industrial countries[2] Group 3: Future Projections - The report predicts a gradual recovery of the core CPI, estimating a year-on-year CPI of 0.5% in December and an average of 0.6% for 2025, which is a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2024[2] - The government aims to maintain a high public budget deficit rate of 4.2% in 2025, with approximately 500 billion allocated for durable consumer goods subsidies and 600-800 billion for affordable housing and land recovery[2] - The emphasis on sustainable consumption growth rather than reliance on traditional infrastructure investment is highlighted as a key strategy for economic resilience[2]