科技周期探索之七：2016-2030年：通用人工智能时代的到来

Investment Rating - Neutral rating maintained for the industry [5] Core Insights - The transition from CPU to GPU has marked a significant shift in computing power, with GPUs becoming the preferred choice for general computing tasks, especially in AI applications [2][3] - The global cloud computing market has seen substantial growth, reaching a size of $676 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2% from 2016 to 2024 [3] - The emergence of large models, such as GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, has revolutionized AI capabilities, indicating a new era in artificial intelligence development [4][18] Summary by Sections Transition from CPU to GPU - The slowdown in mobile internet growth post-2016 has led to a search for new computing technologies, with GPUs taking the lead in performance improvements [2][3] - Nvidia's GPUs have achieved a 1000-fold increase in AI inference speed over the past decade, although the cost reduction per GFLOPS has been slightly below the expectations set by Moore's Law, at approximately 25-35% [2][3] Cloud Computing Growth - By 2024, the cloud computing market is projected to reach $676 billion, reflecting a robust CAGR of 25.2% from 2016 to 2024, as major companies complete their cloud deployments [3][5] Electric Vehicles and AI Models - The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is characterized by their increasing computational capabilities, with the average chip power reaching 500-1000T, expected to grow to 5000T by 2030 [3] - The introduction of large models like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 has opened new avenues for AI applications, with predictions of achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2027-2029 [4][18] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The report outlines the evolution of technology from 2016 to 2030, marking this period as the "AI era," following the end of the mobile internet era [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI agents as the next potential growth area, similar to the rise of apps during the mobile internet era [4][18]