铜行业周报：宏观压制减弱，供需有望支撑铜价上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic pressures are easing, and supply-demand dynamics are expected to support an upward trend in copper prices. As of December 6, 2024, SHFE copper price is 74,730 CNY/ton, up 1.2% week-on-week, while LME copper price is 9,093 USD/ton, up 0.9% week-on-week [1][20]. - The report anticipates that as supply tightens and demand improves, copper prices are likely to continue rising. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Copper [4][114]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Update - Copper prices have increased, with domestic copper social inventory continuing to decline and LME copper inventory slightly decreasing. SHFE copper and LME copper prices rose by 1.2% and 0.9% respectively compared to the previous week [1.1][16]. - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 5.2% week-on-week, while LME global inventory decreased by 0.4% [2.1][27]. 2. Supply - In November, domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 0.9% month-on-month, and domestic scrap copper production increased by 2.6% [2][70]. - Domestic copper concentrate production in October was 148,000 tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year [2.1][55]. - The current price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper is 1,129 CNY/ton, indicating a favorable environment for scrap copper production [2.2][57]. 3. Domestic Demand - The cable industry’s operating rate increased by 0.75 percentage points week-on-week, with significant year-on-year growth in the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in October [3.1][96]. - The production of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in October increased by 48%, 17.1%, and 16.6% year-on-year, respectively [3.2][96]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for copper prices from December 2024 to 2025, driven by tightening supply and improving demand. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Copper, with a focus on Minmetals Resources [4][114].