货币政策与流动性观察：政府融资放缓，资金面均衡偏松

Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 83.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 16.6%[14] - The domestic liquidity remains balanced, with the central bank's net liquidity withdrawal last week amounting to -1,132.1 billion yuan[20] - The overnight and 7-day interest rates have diverged, with the overnight repo rate increasing by 4.1 basis points to 1.56%[39] Government Financing and Bond Issuance - Government bonds net financing last week was 620.1 billion yuan, a decrease from 962.4 billion yuan the previous week[61] - The planned issuance of government bonds this week is 698.7 billion yuan, with expected net financing of 619.8 billion yuan[61] - The net financing for corporate bonds last week was 196.3 billion yuan, with a planned issuance of 1,143.7 billion yuan this week, expected to result in a net financing of -1,812.7 billion yuan[62] Currency Exchange and Market Trends - The CFETS index for the yuan fell by 0.36 to 99.71 last week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.19 to 105.97[3] - The onshore yuan exchange rate against the US dollar increased by 0.03 to 7.26, and the offshore rate also rose by 0.02 to 7.26[3]