2024年12月政治局会议解读：全方位扩大内需

Macroeconomic Policy - The 2025 fiscal policy will be "more proactive," indicating a significant increase in domestic fiscal policy strength compared to previous years[4] - The monetary policy will shift to "moderately accommodative," suggesting further easing space for monetary policy in 2025[4] - The last mention of "moderately accommodative monetary policy" alongside "proactive fiscal policy" was in 2009 and 2010, highlighting a strong intent to boost growth in 2025[4] Domestic Demand Policy - The meeting emphasized "vigorously boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency," indicating a clear tilt of fiscal spending towards consumption in 2025[4] - Investment policies will focus on "improving investment efficiency," likely through supply-side structural reforms to eliminate outdated and inefficient capacities[4] Real Estate Policy - The 2024 meeting's mention of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" suggests increased support for the real estate sector in 2025, which was not addressed in the previous two years[4][19] Social Policy - The meeting stressed the need to "increase efforts to guarantee and improve people's livelihoods," with expected increases in spending on healthcare, education, and social security to lower living costs and stimulate consumption[5][21] Economic Context - In 2024, domestic effective demand was insufficient while external demand was strong; however, in 2025, external factors are expected to negatively impact economic growth, making domestic demand crucial for maintaining reasonable growth rates[6]