12.9政治局会议解读：政策全面转向积极，优先稳定楼市股市提振消费

Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized a clear requirement to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, contrasting with previous meetings[11] - Policies to stabilize the real estate market in 2025 are expected to include increasing special bonds by approximately 600-800 billion RMB for housing and land recovery[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to rise to around 4.2% in 2025, with an expected issuance of over 1.5 trillion RMB in ordinary government bonds[31] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Strategies - There is a strong focus on boosting domestic demand, with consumption being prioritized over investment growth[17] - The central government is expected to allocate around 500 billion RMB for high-intensity consumption subsidies in 2025, expanding the scope to include furniture and communication equipment[18] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to remain stable, with a shift towards digital and smart construction as new growth points[18] Group 3: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Monetary policy is expected to shift to a moderately loose stance, with an anticipated interest rate cut of around 40 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100-150 basis points in 2025[44] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.6 against the USD, allowing for some depreciation to mitigate export impacts[44] - The focus will be on reducing financing costs for the real economy, with policy rates and LPR expected to decrease by approximately 40 basis points[45]