2025年银行业资产负债配置展望：财政与信用双引擎

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector's asset-liability configuration is closely linked to macroeconomic variables and microeconomic behaviors, with the report providing a detailed outlook for 2025 [16][19]. - It is anticipated that the M2 growth rate will be approximately 9.0% and social financing (社融) growth will be around 8.8% in 2025, driven by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [18][43]. - The report emphasizes that the government will likely increase its deficit ratio to about 3.8%, expanding the scale of special bonds and special treasury bonds [45][49]. Summary by Sections Core Conclusion - The banking sector's asset-liability configuration connects macroeconomic variables with the behaviors of microeconomic entities, influencing many variables in macroeconomic operations [16]. Analysis Framework - The report outlines a framework for analyzing the banking sector's asset-liability configuration, focusing on M2 growth as a starting point and predicting major asset categories based on M2 derivation methods [19]. M2 Growth Forecast - The expected M2 growth for 2025 is around 9.0%, with a projected nominal GDP growth of approximately 5.5% [30][25]. M2 Derivation Sources - The report identifies several channels for M2 derivation, including fiscal net spending, credit issuance, and bank investments in corporate bonds [32][36]. Social Financing Growth Forecast - The report forecasts that social financing will increase by about 35.9 trillion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a growth rate of 8.8% [43]. Government Bonds - It is projected that the net financing scale of government bonds will reach approximately 13.8 trillion yuan in 2025, with an increase in the deficit ratio and special bonds [45][51]. Corporate Bonds - The report estimates that new corporate bonds will amount to about 2.0 trillion yuan in 2025, influenced by ongoing counter-cyclical policies [57]. Basic Currency - The report predicts a net increase of about 1.0 trillion yuan in basic currency for 2025, with expectations of multiple reserve requirement ratio cuts [18][70]. Credit Allocation - The anticipated new RMB loans for 2025 are approximately 18.8 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of about 7.4%, affected by the replacement of hidden debts [78].