宏观周报：美联储12月降息概率增大

Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, the largest gain since April, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, matching the highest level since August, with 7.1 million unemployed[6] - The manufacturing PMI for November was 50.3%, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing activity[6] Real Estate Market - In November, over 10 cities in China saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions, reflecting a recovery trend in the real estate market[5] - Some cities, including Hangzhou and Guangzhou, raised the commercial loan interest rates for first-time homebuyers to maintain a reasonable gap with public housing loan rates[5] Inflation and Prices - The producer price index (PPI) for November was 47.7%, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous month, indicating a decline in factory gate prices[6] - The purchasing price index for raw materials was 49.8%, down 3.6% from the previous month, suggesting a decrease in input costs for manufacturers[6] GDP Growth - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 4.9%, with industrial growth contributing significantly to the overall economic performance[9] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth was 33.37% in June 2022, showing a strong influence on economic expansion[11]