2025年光伏策略报告：供给侧拐点已至，新技术量产突破

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the photovoltaic industry, highlighting significant growth potential and recovery in profitability across various segments [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the supply-side turning point has been reached, with new technology breakthroughs in mass production expected to drive industry growth [1]. - It forecasts a global increase in photovoltaic installations, projecting 565 GW of new capacity in 2025, a 15% year-on-year increase, with China, the US, and Europe contributing significantly [3][14]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in high-growth areas such as inverters and mounting structures, as well as leading photovoltaic companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and cost advantages [4]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Demand - The report notes that the overseas interest rate reduction cycle continues to drive high growth, while domestic demand remains stable due to a high base effect. It predicts that domestic installations will reach 248 GW in 2025, a 3% increase year-on-year [3][14]. - The demand for photovoltaic installations is expected to stabilize, with emerging markets like the Middle East and India contributing significantly to new capacity [3]. PART 2: Supply Chain - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing enhanced self-discipline, leading to significant recovery potential in profitability. It notes that the minimum cost for photovoltaic modules is estimated at 0.68 RMB/W, which is seen as a price floor for the industry [4][29]. - It discusses the supply chain dynamics, indicating that leading companies have significant cost and channel advantages, and that new technologies are accelerating industrialization [4]. PART 3: New Technologies - The report identifies 2025 as a breakthrough year for new technologies, with advancements in TOPCon and HJT expected to drive down costs and improve efficiency [4]. - It mentions that the industry is witnessing a shift towards more efficient technologies, with the introduction of bifacial and tandem solar cells expected to gain traction [4]. PART 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth areas such as inverters and mounting structures, as well as leading photovoltaic companies with strong cost advantages and market positions [4]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include leading manufacturers and those benefiting from new technology advancements [4].