电子行业周报：上修全球半导体销额预期，看好半导体自主可控进程

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the semiconductor sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [1][5]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor sales forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been revised upward to $626.9 billion and $697.2 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19.0% and 11.2% [1]. - The semiconductor industry is entering a sustained upward cycle driven by increased demand for AI computing power and innovation in AI applications [1]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor supply chains in light of tightening export controls from overseas, suggesting a focus on companies involved in semiconductor self-sufficiency [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33%, while the electronic sector increased by 1.61%, with semiconductors showing a modest gain of 0.45% [1][8]. - The top ten global foundries achieved record high revenues in Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.1% to $34.9 billion [1]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the semiconductor sector, including SMIC, Huahong, and various companies in the Huawei and Apple supply chains [1]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include: - SMIC (stock code: 0981) with a target price of 24.72 CNY and an EPS forecast of 0.06 CNY for 2024 [5]. - Changdian Technology (stock code: 600584) with a target price of 39.56 CNY and an EPS forecast of 0.96 CNY for 2024 [5]. - Northern Huachuang (stock code: 002371) with a target price of 405.59 CNY and an EPS forecast of 10.38 CNY for 2024 [5]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the semiconductor industry has completed significant destocking and supply-side adjustments over the past two years, positioning it for growth amid rising AI-related demand [1]. - The report also mentions the impact of new U.S. export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which is expected to accelerate the localization of semiconductor materials and components in China [1].