家电行业周报（24年第49周）：以旧换新带动家电销售超2000亿，石头科技黑五增长靓丽

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [5][14]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry has seen significant sales growth driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with sales exceeding 200 billion yuan [3][23]. - The domestic demand for major appliances has improved, particularly in October, with air conditioners and range hoods showing notable growth [3][25]. - The overseas "Black Friday" sales event resulted in impressive growth for companies like Roborock, with substantial increases in GMV across various regions [3][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their strong performance and growth potential [14][15][17]. 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts 2.1 Effectiveness of the "Old-for-New" Policy - As of December 6, the "old-for-new" policy has led to the sale of 45.85 million units across eight major appliance categories, generating sales of 201.97 billion yuan [3][23]. - The sales growth accelerated, with the time taken to reach 1 billion yuan reduced from 79 days to just 40 days for the next billion [23]. 2.2 Domestic and International Sales Growth - In October, domestic sales of air conditioners and range hoods increased by 24.1% and 23.3% respectively, while exports of major appliances also showed strong growth [3][25]. - The report highlights that the overall external sales of major appliances maintained a high level of prosperity, with air conditioners seeing a 54.3% increase in exports [25][31]. 2.3 Performance During "Black Friday" Sales - The "Black Friday" sales in the U.S. reached 10.8 billion USD, marking a 10.2% year-on-year increase, with Roborock achieving significant market share growth in various regions [3][31][32]. 3. Key Data Tracking 3.1 Market Performance - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +1.54% this week, outperforming the broader market [37]. 3.2 Raw Material Price Tracking - LME copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.7% and 0.3% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices decreased by 1.2% [39]. 3.3 Shipping and Natural Gas Price Tracking - Shipping indices showed a decline for the West and East US routes, while natural gas prices dropped by 13.4% [55]. 4. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - Haier Smart Home completed the acquisition of Electrolux's water heater business in South Africa for approximately 9.8 billion yuan [56]. - The report notes significant growth in the export of household air conditioners, with a 51.9% increase in volume and a 57.8% increase in sales value in October [57][61]. 5. Earnings Forecast for Key Companies - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating strong growth potential and favorable valuations for companies like Midea Group and Gree Electric Appliances [62].