房地产开发:政治局会议点评:超常规的稳经济工作安排,房地产政策将持续加码
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-12-10 00:46

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The political bureau meeting on December 9, 2023, indicates a proactive approach to economic stability, suggesting that real estate policies will continue to be strengthened [3]. - The focus will shift towards demand-side policies, with an emphasis on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, reflecting the government's concern for both household and corporate balance sheets [3]. - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to be more aggressive, with a return to a "moderately loose" monetary policy akin to that of 2009-2010, and a shift to a "more proactive fiscal policy" [3]. - The report anticipates ongoing support for real estate through various measures, including urban village renovations, inventory reduction policies, and financing support [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy Outlook - The meeting highlighted the need for stronger macroeconomic policies, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing key markets [3]. - The emphasis on "super-cyclical counter-cyclical adjustments" suggests a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies [3]. Real Estate Sector Focus - The report identifies real estate as a critical component for economic recovery, asserting that effective real estate policies are essential for achieving broader economic stability [3]. - Specific areas of focus include demand-side policies, inventory reduction strategies, and continued financing support for real estate companies [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the anticipated policy support and improving competitive landscape [4]. - Recommended stocks include major players in the sector, such as Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, among others [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of supply-side policies and their impact on the market [4].