交通运输行业周报：十年期国债收益率走低利好高股息资产，继续看好油运长周期确定性

Investment Rating - The transportation and storage industry is rated as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - The continued decline in the 10-year government bond yield enhances the allocation value of high-dividend assets in the transportation sector, with a focus on long-term certainty in oil shipping [2][3] - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist in 2024, benefiting quality listed companies in sub-sectors such as highways, railways, ports, and bulk supply chains, which are likely to see a valuation recovery [2] - The oil shipping sector remains supported by OPEC+ production cuts and a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to a strong certainty in oil shipping demand [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The transportation sector saw a weekly increase of 3.3%, ranking 10th among all sectors, with notable gains in rail (+6.79%), aviation (+3.93%), and highways (+3.79%) [4][17] - The overall A-share market indices also showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 2.33% [4] Industry Fundamentals Shipping - As of December 5, 2024, the BDTI index was at 944 points, up 5.8% week-on-week, with VLCC rates at $28,236/day, down 6.7% [24] - Oil shipping demand is expected to remain strong due to OPEC+ production cuts and a slow growth in new capacity [3] Aviation - In October 2024, domestic air travel in China reached 58.29 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [55] - International passenger volume surged by 76.1% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery in air travel demand [55] Express Logistics - In October 2024, the express delivery volume reached 16.31 billion pieces, up 35.3% year-on-year, with revenue at 125.79 billion yuan, up 14.5% [77] - Major express companies showed significant growth in business volume, indicating a potential easing of competition in the short term [5] Rail and Road - In October 2024, railway freight turnover was 319.446 billion ton-kilometers, up 0.2% year-on-year, while road freight turnover was 684.851 billion ton-kilometers, up 3.9% [87][93] - Road passenger turnover saw a substantial increase of 37.8% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand in the sector [93] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-dividend central enterprises in the transportation sector, including companies like Deep Expressway and Daqin Railway [5] - Given geopolitical tensions and slow capacity growth, oil shipping and container shipping are expected to maintain favorable conditions, with recommendations for companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [5] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, suggesting a steady recovery in aviation demand, with recommendations for major airlines [5]