万联证券：万联晨会-20241210

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail financial business of the company maintains resilience, with retail loan growth aligning with overall loan growth, and the proportion remaining stable. Small and micro loans have seen rapid growth, increasing their share of retail loans, while the overall pricing of retail loans is lower than the average of joint-stock banks, leading to a continuous narrowing of the pricing gap [6][9] - Retail deposits have surpassed retail loans, resulting in a positive internal interest net income, which supports the net interest income of retail financial business. Although there is a negative growth in net fee income, the continuous growth in retail customer AUM and the recovery trend in wealth management-related business sales may help stabilize net fee income in the retail sector [6][9] - The report highlights that the attention and overdue rates of some retail loans are still rising, while the overall loan provision remains high. The non-performing loan ratio for corporate loans continues to decline, and the overall non-performing loan ratio remains stable. The bank's provision coverage and loan provision ratios are both maintained at high levels, indicating potential for release [6][9] - The report notes that the current account ratio of deposits is at a relatively high level among listed banks, with a significant cost advantage in deposits. Although the trend of increasing fixed-term deposits continues, the bank's management of retail and corporate deposit costs remains effective [6][9] - The earnings forecast suggests that the company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of -3.33%, 5.2%, and 4.67% for 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of 1.35%, 5.85%, and 5.54% respectively. The estimated EPS for these years are 5.89, 6.24, and 6.58 yuan [6][9]