Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The political bureau meeting on December 9, 2023, indicates a proactive approach to economic stabilization, with a focus on enhancing real estate policies [3]. - The emphasis on "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" suggests ongoing support for the sector, highlighting the importance of asset balance sheets for both residents and enterprises [3]. - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to shift towards demand-side strategies, with a notable absence of previous supply-side reform discussions [3]. - The report anticipates that fiscal and monetary policies will become more aggressive, with a return to a "moderately loose" monetary stance reminiscent of 2009-2010 [3]. - Real estate policies are expected to intensify, focusing on urban village renovations, inventory reduction, and financing support [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy Outlook - The meeting's conclusions signal a shift towards more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on demand expansion and risk prevention [3]. - The report suggests that the real estate sector is crucial for economic recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several key stocks to focus on, including major A-share companies like Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, as well as H-share companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of supply-side policies, particularly in first and second-tier cities [4]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in new home transactions, with a year-on-year growth of 50.8% in core cities [4].
政治局会议点评:超常规的稳经济工作安排,房地产政策将持续加码
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-12-10 01:10