政策分析-中央经济工作会议前瞻：一次具有转折意义的政策冲锋

Economic Growth Target - The economic growth target for 2025 is expected to be set around 5%[11] - Achieving this target is crucial as it aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the goal of doubling the economy by 2035, which requires an average annual GDP growth of at least 4.5%[11] - The importance of stabilizing growth has increased since the Politburo meeting in September, indicating a focus on achieving the 5% target for 2025[17] Fiscal Policy - A more robust fiscal policy is anticipated, with the general public budget deficit ratio expected to be set between 3.5% and 4.0%[18] - Special government bond issuance is projected to increase to 2 trillion yuan, with 1 trillion yuan allocated for bank capital and another 1 trillion yuan for key projects[18] - Local government special bond issuance is expected to reach approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, focusing on affordable housing and land reserve support[19] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is shifting from a stable to a more accommodative stance, with expectations of a 10-20 basis point reduction in the open market operation rate in 2025[27] - The central bank is likely to continue reducing the reserve requirement ratio, although breaking below 5% may face resistance[27] - The central bank is expected to expand its balance sheet by purchasing government bonds to maintain reasonable price levels[28] Real Estate Policy - The current goal of real estate policy is to achieve "stop the decline and stabilize" housing prices[29] - Housing provident fund loan rates are expected to be lowered to avoid inversion with mortgage rates, aiding in stabilizing housing prices[29] - Local governments may issue special bonds to acquire existing housing for affordable housing projects, which is critical for stabilizing prices in first and second-tier cities[29] Technology and Industry Policy - Emphasis on self-reliance in technology is increasing due to external uncertainties, with a focus on ensuring supply chain security[32] - Policies supporting the development of new productive forces are expected to be introduced, particularly for traditional industries undergoing transformation[32] Risk Factors - External risks may increase, particularly if the U.S. imposes higher tariffs than expected, potentially impacting GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points[17] - There is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of fiscal policies and the real estate market's response to government interventions[33] - The flexibility of the exchange rate may be lower than anticipated, complicating the implementation of counter-cyclical policies[33]