11月通胀，支持“适度宽松”

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 0.5% and down from 0.3% in the previous month[2] - November CPI decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 0.3% in October[2] - November PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, better than the expected decline of 2.7% and down from 2.9% in the previous month[2] Food Prices Impact - Food prices fell for two consecutive months, with a month-on-month decline of 2.7% in November, worsening from -1.2% in October[2] - Key food items such as fresh vegetables, pork, fresh fruits, and aquatic products saw price drops of 13.2%, 3.4%, 3.0%, and 1.3% respectively, contributing to a 0.46 percentage point decrease in CPI[2] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices shifted from stable to a 0.1% decline month-on-month, with consumer goods prices down by 0.7%[3] - Household appliance prices continued to weaken, decreasing by 0.9%, worse than the historical averages of -0.7% and -0.2%[3] Positive Trends in Specific Categories - Clothing prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month due to seasonal changes, exceeding seasonal expectations[4] - Transportation prices increased by 0.1% for the first time in nine months, driven by new vehicle launches[4] - Communication tools prices rose by 1.1%, significantly stronger than seasonal trends, aided by new product releases and consumer incentives[4] Service Prices and PPI Insights - Service CPI fell by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with seasonal patterns, influenced by a decline in travel-related costs[5] - PPI turned positive with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a recovery in industrial prices, particularly in raw materials and processing industries[6] Market Outlook - The lower-than-expected CPI is primarily driven by food prices, while PPI shows stronger-than-expected performance, reflecting the gradual impact of previous policies[10] - Current market conditions suggest a potential risk of overpricing in the 10-year government bond yields, with ongoing pressures from liquidity and policy adjustments[10]