1209政治局会议点评：政策超预期，A股有望“空中加油”

Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 9, 2024, set a more proactive tone for economic growth policies in 2025, exceeding market expectations[3] - The anticipated fiscal deficit rate is around 4%, with special bonds totaling CNY 4.5 trillion and additional special treasury bonds expected to reach CNY 2 trillion[3] - Monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose," marking the first such change in 14 years, which is expected to provide strong liquidity support for economic growth in 2025[3] Consumption and Demand - The emphasis on boosting consumption has been elevated, with policies aimed at significantly increasing domestic demand, contrasting with last year's focus on technology innovation[3] - The government plans to expand the scope of the "old for new" consumption policy and may introduce additional measures such as direct cash transfers to stimulate consumer spending[3] Market Stability - The stock and real estate markets are expected to stabilize, supported by a combination of loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, leading to a potential "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2025[3] - Recent data indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with sales showing signs of improvement following the easing of restrictions and lower mortgage rates[3] Risk Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of addressing external shocks and managing risks in key areas such as local debt and real estate, particularly in light of pressures from U.S. policies[3] - The government aims to stabilize market expectations and enhance economic vitality through a series of policy measures designed to mitigate risks and promote sustained economic recovery[5]