中国通胀系列八：价格动力暂不强，逆周期预期上升

Inflation Data Summary - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and increased by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a 0.3% increase in October[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 0.3% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in October[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, an improvement from a 2.9% decline in October[1] Price Trends - The CPI and PPI gap narrowed to 2.7% in November, indicating a convergence of price trends[3] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh food prices dropping 13.2% month-on-month, contributing to the overall CPI decrease[39] - Durable goods experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.4% in November, reflecting a contraction in consumer demand[3] Economic Policy Impact - The implementation of fiscal policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to alleviate price pressures in the future[3] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.5% reflects ongoing challenges in the industrial sector, particularly in the mining and processing industries[44] - The increase in construction demand has led to a recovery in prices for steel and cement, indicating a potential stabilization in the midstream sector[3] Future Considerations - Attention should be paid to geopolitical instability affecting upstream energy prices and its implications for inflation[4] - The central bank's recent gold purchases may provide temporary relief for domestic commodity prices, supporting the internal circulation of goods[4]