国内观察：2024年12月政治局会议点评：加强超常规逆周期调节

Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, 2024, emphasized "strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments," exceeding market expectations[1] - The meeting indicated a potential for significant interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, marking the first use of this terminology since 2010[1] - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated, with the deficit rate possibly increasing to around 4% next year, compared to 3.6% during the pandemic response in 2020[1] GDP Growth Projections - The GDP growth target for this year is likely to be around 5%, with expectations for a rebound next year[1] - Indicators such as real estate sales, consumption, and PMI have shown signs of recovery, supporting the completion of the growth target[1] - The focus on domestic demand is expected to intensify, especially in light of uncertainties in external demand[1] Domestic Demand Expansion - The policy aims to comprehensively expand domestic demand, with a focus on boosting consumption and stabilizing investment[1] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with a reduction in the decline of property sales and increased infrastructure investment[1] - Technological innovation and green growth are highlighted as key areas for future development, with structural monetary policy tools expected to support these initiatives[1] Risk Management - The meeting reiterated the importance of preventing systemic financial risks, particularly in light of external shocks such as potential changes in U.S. trade policy under a new administration[1] - There is a strong emphasis on managing hidden debts and reforming financing platforms to mitigate risks[1]