化工行业周报：2024年12月第1周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the uncertainty in oil price expectations following Trump's election, the market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry. The report highlights a shift in market sentiment with a lower risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The importance of food security has increased due to global instability, leading to a more rigid demand in the agriculture and food supply chain, which is expected to sustain the industry's recovery and upward elasticity [19][6]. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of December 6, Brent oil price decreased by 2.5% to $71.12 per barrel. Early in the week, oil prices were slightly supported by geopolitical uncertainties and strong expectations for OPEC+ production cuts. However, concerns about future supply-demand imbalances and an unexpected increase in U.S. refined oil inventories pressured prices downward. As of November 29, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 423.4 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 5.1 million barrels [22][3]. - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for dichloromethane (up 5.0%), DMF (up 4.9%), and petroleum coke (up 4.2%). The top three price decreases were for liquid chlorine (down 7.9%), natural gas (down 7.8%), and anthracene oil (down 6.2%) [23][4]. Price Spread Changes - This week, the top three products with the largest price spread increases were the maleic anhydride BDO spread (up 91.3%), PTMEG spread (up 26.3%), and carbon black spread (up 23.1%). The largest decreases were seen in the hydrogen peroxide spread (down 100.0%), butyl acrylate spread (down 60.2%), and styrene (down 33.7%) [5][27]. - Monthly, the top three products with the largest price spread increases were the MTO spread (up 111.4%), lithium hexafluorophosphate spread (up 88.7%), and glycine-chloroacetic acid spread (up 44.2%). The largest decreases were in PTA (down 43.3%), ethylene glycol spread (down 33.9%), and hydrogen peroxide spread (down 33.3%) [5][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects expected to launch [19]. - Royal Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again after addressing previous macro demand pressures [20]. - Jinhui Industrial (002597, Buy): A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal changes at the bottom of its main product cycle [20]. - Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated): A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustainable phosphate ore market conditions [21].